crapmuffins

Humans are overconfident creatures. Ninety-four percent of college professors believe they are above average teachers, and 90 percent of drivers believe they are above average behind the wheel. Researchers Paul J.H. Schoemaker and J. Edward Russo gave computer executives quizzes on their industry. Afterward, the executives estimated that they had gotten 5 percent of the answers wrong. In fact, they had gotten 80 percent of the answers wrong.

David Brooks

Fortunately, for those who study the human comedy, the epicenter of overconfidence moves from year to year. Up until recently, people in the financial world bathed in the warm glow of their own self-approval. Hubris in that world always takes the same form: The geniuses there come to believe that they have mastered risk. The future is an algorithm and they’ve cracked the code.

Over the past year, the bonfire of overconfidence has shifted to Washington. Since the masters of finance have been exposed as idiots, the masters of government have concluded (somewhat illogically) that they must be really smart.

Overconfidence in government also has a characteristic form: that of highly rational Olympians who attempt to stand above problems and solve them in a finely tuned and impartial manner. In moments of government overconfidence, officials come to see society not as a dynamic and complex organism, but as a machine, which can be rebuilt. In such moments, governance and engineering merge into one.

Examples of this overconfidence abound. But let us pick just one: the effort to cap financial compensation.

Back in the days of Wall Street overconfidence, the financial titans believed that they deserved to give each other G.D.P.-level pay packages, even though there is no evidence that such packages improve performance. Now in disgrace, Wall Street firms are rewriting their rules, but the Obama administration has decided it should take control of compensation reform. Nobody seriously believes high pay caused the financial meltdown; it was bubblicious groupthink. But cutting executive pay just polls so well.

Every great action can be done in a spirit of humility or in a spirit of overconfidence. Regulating pay in a spirit of humility would mean rebalancing the power between shareholders and executives, without getting government involved in micromanaging individual pay decisions.

But this is not a moment of humility. Treasury officials are now making individual pay-package decisions across an array of different companies — and they must have really big brains to understand the motivational psychology of all those different people. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, has decided to police banks and veto pay deals that lead to excessive risk. Those experts must have absolutely gigantic brains if they can define excessive risk years before investments pay off.

The best and the brightest in government are now rewriting existing pay contracts and determining that certain firms will be compelled to pay much less than their competitors. They’re not leveling the playing field, as a humble government would do. They’re making it less level in complicated ways.

Reality, of course, has a way of upending finely crafted plans. The effort to cap golden parachutes in 1989 perversely caused companies to increase their golden parachute packages right up to the legal limit. A 1993 law to cap C.E.O. pay led to greater use of stock options and encouraged riskier behavior.

In advance of the current new pay restrictions, 12 out of the 25 highest-paid executives have already left A.I.G., and 11 out of 25 have left Bank of America. We’ll never know how much future talent was dissuaded from working at these ailing firms.

Citigroup used to have a really high-performing energy unit. But under the new salary regime, the bank wasn’t permitted to pay the chief of that unit what he thought he was worth. Citigroup was forced to sell that profitable unit at bargain-basement prices to Occidental Petroleum.

These rules probably won’t even have a big effect on executive wealth. They’ll just drive compensation into back channels and risk-taking into unseen parts of the market.

Again, the issue is not whether government acts, but whether it acts with an awareness of the limits of its knowledge. Sometimes we seem to have a government with no sense of those limits, no sense that perhaps government officials don’t know how to restructure General Motors, pick the most promising battery technology, re-engineer the health care system from the top, or fine-tune the complex system of executive pay.

Furthermore, when extending federal authority, the Obama folks never seem to ask how Republicans will use this power when they regain the White House. The Democrats trust themselves to set private-sector salaries and use extralegal means to go after malefactors, but would they trust a future Dick Cheney?

I hope they know what they’re doing. Because when a future Cheney comes into office, I’m pretty sure he’ll be coming after columnists’ salaries first.

A version of this article appeared in print on October 27, 2009, on page A31 of the New York edition.

The children’s aunt, Marilyn Wilson, who left the house with the mother, said she had no regrets about leaving the children home alone, “No, I really don’t because if they had been there by themselves, I don’t know if the boys set the house on fire or somebody threw something in there to set it on fire. I really need to get in there to see if my purse burned up. I had my Food Stamp Card and everything in there.

Wow. Karma headed this woman's way. I cannot believe the audacity of people sometimes! (the kids were 2 and 3 years old and left home alone...)

AP Newsbreak: New medical marijuana policy issued

By DEVLIN BARRETT (AP) – 14 hours ago

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration will not seek to arrest medical marijuana users and suppliers as long as they conform to state laws, under new policy guidelines to be sent to federal prosecutors Monday.

Two Justice Department officials described the new policy to The Associated Press, saying prosecutors will be told it is not a good use of their time to arrest people who use or provide medical marijuana in strict compliance with state laws.

The new policy is a significant departure from the Bush administration, which insisted it would continue to enforce federal anti-pot laws regardless of state codes.

Fourteen states allow some use of marijuana for medical purposes: Alaska, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

California is unique among those for the presence of dispensaries — businesses that sell marijuana and even advertise their services.

Attorney General Eric Holder said in March that he wanted federal law enforcement officials to pursue those who violate both federal and state law, but it has not been clear how that goal would be put into practice.

A 3-page memo spelling out the policy is expected to be sent Monday to federal prosecutors in the 14 states, and also to top officials at the FBI and the Drug Enforcement Administration.

The memo, the officials said, emphasizes that prosecutors have wide discretion in choosing which cases to pursue, and says it is not a good use of federal manpower to prosecute those who are without a doubt in compliance with state law.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the legal guidance before it is issued.

At the same time, the officials said, the government will still prosecute those who use medical marijuana as a cover for other illegal activity. The memo particularly warns that some suspects may hide old-fashioned drug dealing or other crimes behind a medical marijuana business.

In particular, the memo urges prosecutors to pursue marijuana cases which involve violence, the illegal use of firearms, selling pot to minors, money laundering or other crimes.

And while the policy memo describes a change in priorities away from prosecuting medical marijuana cases, it does not rule out the possibility that the federal government could still prosecute someone whose activities are allowed under state law.

The memo, officials said, is designed to give a sense of prosecutorial priorities to U.S. Attorneys in the states that allow medical marijuana. It notes that pot sales in the United States are the largest source of money for violent Mexican drug cartels, but adds that federal law enforcement agencies have limited resources.

Medical marijuana advocates have been anxious to see exactly how the administration would implement candidate Barack Obama's repeated promises to change the policy in situations in which state laws allow the use of medical marijuana.

Shortly after Obama took office, DEA agents raided four dispensaries in Los Angeles, prompting confusion about the government's plans.

On the Net:

• Drug Enforcement Administration: http://www.usdoj.gov/dea/

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Parisian style ... Alex Virag behind the wheel of his Citroen 2CV. Photo: Richard Jinman

Richard Jinman discovers the city of love from an antique Citroen.

Alex Virag says the mere sight of a Citroen 2CV is enough to make many Parisians smile, and he's right. Driving down a narrow street in our curvy, cream-coloured convertible with bright red seats, we pass a middle-aged woman on a bicycle. The car makes her do something unusual for a grown-up Parisian: she giggles like a lovestruck schoolgirl. "Ah, ma jeunesse!" she exclaims.

Virag, my 26-year-old guide, turns to me from the driver's seat. "It was her first car – her youth," he explains seriously. He toots the 2CV's horn, a sound resembling a frog with laryngitis. "You are still young, madam!" he shouts in flirty, heavily accented English. The woman blushes and waves madly, her bike charting an increasingly wobbly course down the street.

The 2CV, for the uninitiated, is France's answer to the Austin Mini or the Volkswagen Beetle. It was designed in the 1930s by Pierre-Jules Boulanger to a utilitarian brief: a vehicle capable of transporting two people and 100 kilograms of farm goods at 60km/h across muddy and unpaved roads if necessary. The result might have been a Gallic brick. Instead, it was a curvaceous, deceptively simple car with Bauhaus-inspired bodywork and a canvas-sunroof. Its name referenced its modest horsepower rating – deux chevaux vapeur means "two steam horses" – and it quickly became an icon.

Between 1948 and 1990, Citroen built more than 3.8 million 2CVs. They were once ubiquitous in France and popular in Britain – the 1980s star Lloyd Cole wrote a song about a girl who drove one – because of their low cost and eccentric retro style. But times change. The cars have become something of a rarity in Paris and well-maintained vehicles command increasingly high prices among aficionados.

One of several companies offering 2CV tours around the French capital is 4 Roues Sous 1 Parapluie – a name that plays on the 2CV's nickname "the umbrella on wheels". You can choose your route from the company's menu or make up your own. Virag, who collects me from my hotel near the Arc de Triomphe, suggests we mix it up. The Friday traffic will pose certain "probleems" he says, but we will see familiar landmarks and parts of Paris only Parisians know well.

I lower myself into the car – an immaculate 1977 model – and onto a seat with the consistency of an overstuffed sofa. Virag fires up the engine and we pull out into heavy Champs-Elysees traffic propelled by what sounds like an overwrought sewing machine. Cobblestones shake the car and I grip the rudimentary seat belt even tighter.

My driver wears a jaunty cap, a shirt with the collar turned up and what looks suspiciously like a cravat. It's an '80s boy-band look that could get you killed in certain Australian hotels but worn behind the wheel of a 2CV on the Champs-Elysees, it makes perfect sense. As modern Citroens and Peugeots dart around us, Virag explains, rather unnecessarily, that one needs to be "cool and patient" to drive an antique car in the Parisian rush hour.

"Drivers here are rude, angry and fast," he observes as a BMW flashes past my door. "But they drive well – much better than in Toulouse."

We swing left, off the Champs-Elysees onto ritzy Rue du Faubourg Saint Honore. The 2CV corners like a 600-kilogram blamanche but it's not an unpleasant sensation once you get used to it. Virag points out the Elysee Palace, home to Nicolas Sarkozy and his third wife, Carla Bruni. There's Cartier, here's Hermes. It's a clear day, the car's roof is wide open. It's wonderful looking up at the sky and the passing streetscape.

Driving a rudimentary convertible has its downsides, of course. "Sometimes when it rains you have water at your feet," says my guide cheerfully. "You go splish, splash. But it's OK."

A business and tourism graduate, Virag proves an amiable companion. I marvel at his ability to swerve around pedestrians while pointing out the finer details of the Place Vendome or the Pompidou Centre ("a lot of people hate zis building") in his second language. Tugging and twisting the gear stick – a lever topped with a billiard ball that protrudes from the dashboard – he navigates easily through the city's backstreets.

Virag offers his views on Bertrand Delanoe, Paris's openly gay mayor. "E is socialist but very popular," he says. "E 'as done a lot for Paris."

Delanoe's achievements include the furious washing of public monuments. Notre Dame, for example, gleams like ivory.

But away from the tourist hotspots, the quieter streets of the fashionable Marais district and the Latin Quarter retain the patina of grime that gives Paris its urbane edge.

In one of these streets – Rue de Verneuil – we find a pop culture shrine: the house once occupied by Serge Gainsbourg and his English partner and muse, Jane Birkin. It's hard to miss. Thousands of fans have covered the walls with tributes to France's great singer, songwriter and libertine who died of a heart attack in 1991 and whose funeral brought Paris to a standstill.

The traffic is thickening now. After forcing our way through a line of gridlocked cars on the Boulevard Saint-Germain – "that was crazy," admits Virag – we decide to call it a day. In less than three hours, we have driven through much of central Paris and found time for a couple of stops.

Virag pulls up to the kerb outside my hotel. We shake hands and say goodbye.

Just before he drives away he glances at the mirror, adjusts his cap and tugs his collar to the required angle. This is Paris, after all, and standards must be maintained.

Richard Jinman travelled courtesy of Etihad Airways and Rail Europe.

FAST FACTS

Getting there

Etihad flies to Paris via Abu Dhabi for about $1850 (low-season return from Melbourne and Sydney, including tax.) The author travelled from London to Paris on the Eurostar, taking about 2 hours, from €68 ($110) one-way.

Driving there

4 Roues sous 1 Parapluie has a fleet of cars and a range of tours to suit your budget, time and familiarity with Paris, or will create a bespoke itinerary. For a quick hit, the 30-minute Paris to Champs-Elysees tour takes in tourist hot spots such as the Arc de Triomphe, the Eiffel Tower and Les Invalides, from €19 a person with three people in the car to €58 if you're alone. See 4roues-sous-1parapluie.com.

Ahh, I love these cars!!

By Jason Fitzpatrick, 12:00 PM on Sun Oct 4 2009, 11,764 views (Edit, to draft, Slurp)

Organizing things that have a permanent home isn't that difficult. Assign a space and be disciplined about returning the item. What about transient, outgoing items like library books, loaners from friends, and so on? Create a station for them.

The items themselves aren't permanent, in fact they'll all be on their way soon enough to the library, the video store, or the donation bin at the local thrift store soon enough. In the mean time however, you'll be able to keep a much tidier home if these homeless items aren't roaming free.

At design and organization blog The Red Chair, they advocate creating a permanent station for your transient items. Their solution is to use some basic wire storage cubes and cardboard banker's boxes which keeps the total cost of their station at around $25. You may opt to go for a more elegant solution for your home or to stash your station in the hall closet out of sight.

If you have a similar station already, we'd love to hear about it in the comments.

DIY Storage For "Transient" Items [via Unclutterer]

Ahh, I've been trying to de-clutter our house a bit, and DEFINITELY need something like this for day-to-day use. I think the bigger thing that tends to get us are the items that don't really require ACTION per se, but need to be filed, scanned, or something similar.

We have been trying to move toward a more digital repository of documents and such, with frequent backups since bills and other information is included, but that doesn't stop the deluge of paper-based crap that comes in the mail, and some companies are still in the ice-age and don't have a good way to pay online/get bills online. So, those bills come in and once they're paid, there's still the task of scanning and filing in our electronic filing cabinet. Tedious, and not at ALL what I want to do on any given afternoon or weekend.

Sooo, while this is a great idea, and may help clear up some of the clutter, it's probably not going to get the biggest source of clutter taken care of, unfortunately :(